What is KST?
Know Sure Thing measures the percentage change in price over four look-backs, from 10 to 30 bars, smooths each one with a simple average, and adds them together with weights of 1, 2, 3 and 4. The slowest component counts four times as much as the fastest, so the longer cycle sets the direction and the shorter ones only shade it. A signal line, a simple average of KST, is drawn with it in its own pane, around a dashed zero line.
KST summarises momentum across several horizons in one line. It is slow by design, it does not give early signals, and it does not predict future prices.
How to use KST
- Above or below zero. Above zero, the weighted rates of change are positive overall, so price has been rising across the horizons measured. Below zero, falling.
- KST crossing its signal line. KST crossing above its signal line means combined momentum has turned up against its recent average; crossing below means it has turned down.
- Slow turns. Because the slowest term dominates, KST tends to change direction once per swing rather than on every pullback, at the cost of turning late.
- Divergence from price. Price making a new high while KST makes a lower high suggests momentum across the horizons is weakening.
These are ways to read the lines, not entry signals on their own.
Settings
| Setting | Default | What it changes |
|---|---|---|
| ROC Length #1 | 10 | Look-back of the fastest rate of change, weighted 1. Minimum 1. |
| ROC Length #2 | 15 | Look-back of the second rate of change, weighted 2. Minimum 1. |
| ROC Length #3 | 20 | Look-back of the third rate of change, weighted 3. Minimum 1. |
| ROC Length #4 | 30 | Look-back of the slowest rate of change, weighted 4. It has the most influence on the line and sets most of the warm-up. Minimum 1. |
| SMA Length #1 | 10 | Bars in the simple average that smooths the first rate of change. Minimum 1. |
| SMA Length #2 | 10 | Bars in the simple average that smooths the second rate of change. Minimum 1. |
| SMA Length #3 | 10 | Bars in the simple average that smooths the third rate of change. Minimum 1. |
| SMA Length #4 | 15 | Bars in the simple average that smooths the fourth rate of change. The default of 15 rather than 10 is intentional. Minimum 1. |
| Signal Line Length | 9 | Bars in the simple average of KST that forms the signal line. Lower gives earlier and more frequent crossings. Minimum 1. |
Adjust the four look-backs, the four smoothing lengths and the signal length in the indicator settings. The weights of 1, 2, 3 and 4 and the close as source are fixed.
Calculation
Each component is a rate of change, the percentage change in the close over its look-back, smoothed with a simple average:
ROCn = 100 * (close - close n bars ago) / close n bars ago
KST = 1 * SMA(ROC10, 10)
+ 2 * SMA(ROC15, 10)
+ 3 * SMA(ROC20, 10)
+ 4 * SMA(ROC30, 15)
Signal = SMA(KST, 9)The weights add to 10, so KST is roughly ten times the size of a single smoothed rate of change. Its scale depends on how volatile the market is and is not bounded.
Warm-up is set by the fourth term. The 30-bar rate of change has its first value on bar 30 counting from 0, and its 15-bar average needs 15 of those values, so KST starts on bar 44. The 9-bar signal line needs 9 KST values and starts on bar 52.
Limitations
- It turns late. Weighting towards the slowest horizon is the point of KST, and it means turns are confirmed well after price has turned.
- It needs a long warm-up. With the defaults, nothing is plotted for the first 44 bars and the signal line for the first 52.
- Many settings to fit. Nine inputs make it easy to tune KST until it looks right on past data, which says little about how it will behave next.
- The live candle moves. The current bar's KST and signal change until that bar closes.
- It is not a strategy. On its own it carries no risk management, sizing or exit.
Frequently asked questions
Know Sure Thing, or KST, is a momentum indicator that adds together four smoothed rates of change over 10, 15, 20 and 30 bars, weighted 1, 2, 3 and 4 so the slowest counts most. It is drawn with a 9-bar signal line and a zero line in a separate pane.
Above zero, price has been rising across the horizons it measures; below zero, falling. KST crossing its signal line shows combined momentum turning against its recent average. Expect it to turn after price, not before.
It is the standard KST setup. The slowest rate of change is smoothed over a longer window than the other three, which keeps the dominant component steady. You can change it in the settings if you prefer.
Yes. The indicator declares nine inputs, each with a minimum of 1: ROC Length #1 to #4, defaults 10, 15, 20 and 30; SMA Length #1 to #4, defaults 10, 10, 10 and 15; and Signal Line Length, default 9. The weights and the close as source are fixed. Open the indicator's settings on the chart to change them.
No. Each value is built from rates of change and simple averages over fixed windows, and closed bars do not change. The current candle's values move while that candle is live and settle when it closes.
Use the Add to chart button at the top of this page. It opens BTC/USDT on Binance in the Altrady Charts terminal with the built-in Know Sure Thing already applied. On any other market, open the indicator picker on the chart and choose Know Sure Thing from the Momentum group.